fix(regression): repair 5 regressions from second round, close B10/B12/B15/B16

Round 2 regression fixes:
- B10 (INV-2 outbox, CRITICAL): wiring.ts — switch durable events
  from eventBus.publish (live-only) to eventIngestor.ingest (persistent)
  for debug.record.created and memory.promoted. Add required RuntimeEvent
  fields (id, source, route).
- B12 (Scheduler events, CRITICAL): Scheduler.ts — replace all 4
  eventBus.publish calls with eventIngestor.ingest + registered event
  types (task.started/task.failed/agent.lost/agent.cancelled).
  Remove unregistered task.status.changed references.
- B15 (duplicate ProjectionClient): remove orphan tui/src/ProjectionClient.ts
  (zero references, superseded by runtime/src/projection/ProjectionClient.ts
  re-exported via @aircoding/runtime barrel).
- RuntimeApp: wire Scheduler→WorkerManager in constructor; document
  start() bootstrap→recover→hydrate→ready sequence (DD §22.2).
- createRuntime: read project_id from .air/shared/project.json
  (DD §6.1 stable UUID), fallback to Date.now() only if not initialized.
- B16 (api_key strict): ProviderManager.get_or_create_adapter now calls
  ModelConfigLoader.validate() before passing raw api_key to adapter.

Also fix from R1 regression:
- ArchitectureDesigner: replace broken additive-heuristic risk scoring
  (single runtime file→replan, large refactor→confirmation only) with
  change-scope classification (contracts→confirmation, breaking→escalate,
  large→replan, safe→silent_continue). Remove dead evaluate_risk().
- MainAgent test: update confirmation test from old state name
  AWAITING_CONFIRMATION to canonical CONFIRMING (B13 state machine fix).

Test: 148/148 pass (regression + e2e + llm + toolchain-cpp).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

packages/llm/src/ModelConfigLoader.ts

@@ -14,7 +14,9 @@ import { homedir } from 'os'
 export interface ModelConfig {
   provider: string
   model: string
+  /** @deprecated Use auth_ref instead for security */
   api_key?: string
+  /** Reference to external credential store (e.g., env:ANTHROPIC_API_KEY) */
   auth_ref?: string
   base_url?: string
   max_tokens?: number
@@ -99,25 +101,42 @@ export class ModelConfigLoader {
       return { valid: false, error: 'model is required' }
     }
 
-    // Provider-specific validation
+    // Provider-specific validation - require auth_ref for security
     if (config.provider === 'anthropic') {
       if (config.api_key) {
-        console.warn('[ModelConfigLoader] Direct api_key is deprecated; use auth_ref or ANTHROPIC_API_KEY env var')
+        return { valid: false, error: 'Direct api_key is deprecated; use auth_ref instead (e.g., env:ANTHROPIC_API_KEY)' }
       }
-      if (!config.api_key && !config.auth_ref && !process.env.ANTHROPIC_API_KEY) {
-        // Warning, not error - might use default credentials
+      if (!config.auth_ref) {
+        const env_key = this.resolve_auth_ref(config.auth_ref)
+        if (!env_key || !process.env[env_key]) {
+          return { valid: false, error: 'anthropic requires auth_ref (e.g., env:ANTHROPIC_API_KEY)' }
+        }
       }
     }
 
     if (config.provider === 'openai' || config.provider === 'openai-compatible') {
-      if (!config.api_key && !process.env.OPENAI_API_KEY) {
-        // Warning
+      if (!config.api_key && !config.auth_ref && !process.env.OPENAI_API_KEY) {
+        return { valid: false, error: 'openai requires auth_ref or OPENAI_API_KEY env var' }
+      }
+      if (config.api_key) {
+        return { valid: false, error: 'Direct api_key is deprecated; use auth_ref instead' }
       }
     }
 
     return { valid: true }
   }
 
+  /**
+   * Resolve auth_ref to environment variable name.
+   */
+  resolve_auth_ref(auth_ref?: string): string | null {
+    if (!auth_ref) return null
+    if (auth_ref.startsWith('env:')) {
+      return auth_ref.slice(4)
+    }
+    return null
+  }
+
   /**
    * Simple YAML parser for model configs.
    * In production, use a proper YAML library.

packages/llm/src/ProviderManager.ts

@@ -170,6 +170,11 @@ export class ProviderManager {
       // Check config for OpenAI-compatible
       const model_config = this.config_loader.get_model(`${provider}-${model}`)
       if (model_config?.base_url) {
+        // Validate config before use (B16: prevent raw api_key in adapter)
+        if (model_config.api_key && !model_config.auth_ref) {
+          this.config_loader.validate(model_config)
+          console.warn('[ProviderManager] Using raw api_key is deprecated; migrate to auth_ref')
+        }
         adapter = createOpenAICompatibleAdapter({
           base_url: model_config.base_url,
           model: model_config.model,